Cut interest rates! 60 basis points! Mortgage interest rate is expected to go down again.
January 1st every year is an important "re-pricing day" for many existing mortgages, and many small partners with mortgages welcome the news of "interest rate cuts".
Industry insiders predict that in 2025, with the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, there is still room for downward mortgage interest rates.
In addition, under the effect of a series of policies to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize", hot property markets such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have undergone positive changes.
How much money can you save?
The stock mortgage with the repricing date of January 1 ushered in a reduction in interest rates, with an adjustment range of 60 basis points.The loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the mortgage interest rate will be re-priced according to the latest LPR quotation for more than five years.
"I opened the bank App early in the morning and found that the annualized interest rate of the loan became 3.3%, and it was still 3.9% yesterday, which dropped a lot!" On the morning of January 1, Xiao Gu from Tangshan, Hebei said.
"The interest rate’ repricing date’ of many housing loan contracts defaults to January 1 of each year, and the repricing period is one year. That is to say, if the LPR drops in that year, the interest rate cut will only be realized on January 1 of the following year." Banking practitioners said.
According to the data of the central bank, in 2024, the LPR linked to the mortgage interest rate for more than five years cut interest rates three times: by 25 basis points in February, by 10 basis points in July, by 25 basis points in October, and by 60 basis points in the whole year. This means that from the 1st, the personal housing loan interest rate with January 1st as the repricing date will drop by 60 basis points to 3.3%.
How much money can you save?Take the loan amount of 1 million yuan and 30 years as an example. When the mortgage interest rate is 3.9%, the monthly payment is 4,717 yuan, while when the mortgage interest rate is 3.3%, the monthly payment is 4,380 yuan, a difference of more than 300 yuan.
Against the background that the mortgage interest rate may continue to decline in 2025 and January 1st is an important "repricing day" every year, the following user voting activities can be designed to collect the public’s views and expectations on the change of mortgage interest rate:
It is expected to be further reduced
Will the mortgage interest rate be further lowered in the future?
With the gradual narrowing of the spread between old and new mortgages and the warming of the stock market, many residents have temporarily changed their idea of repaying loans in advance.Industry insiders predict that in 2025, LPR (loan market quotation rate) still has the possibility of decline.
"During the peak period of last year, the total amount of early repayment of loans by our bank once hit a new high, but in 2024, the total amount of early repayment of loans decreased." The person in charge of the credit department of a large state-owned bank in Zhejiang said that since the second half of 2024, the situation of early repayment of loans has improved, especially in recent months, after the interest rate of existing mortgage loans has been lowered again, the monthly amount of early repayment of loans has decreased by about half compared with the same period of last year.
According to industry analysts,In 2025, under the moderately loose monetary policy, the policy interest rate is expected to continue to decline, and then the LPR quotation will be guided to follow up.The downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate will help promote the recovery of the real estate market, release the consumption potential of residents and promote the recovery and growth of the consumer market.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of china galaxy Securities, predicted that,In 2025, it is possible to reduce the policy interest rate (that is, the 7-day reverse repo rate) by 40-60 basis points, and guide the LPR over 5 years to go down by 60-100 basis points.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, judged that,In 2025, the policy rate cut may reach 0.5 percentage points.It is significantly higher than the interest rate cut of 0.3 percentage points last year, and the interest rates of various structural monetary policy instruments will be lowered in due course, thus guiding the financing costs of enterprises and residents to go down. It is not ruled out that in 2025, it is possible to continue to implement a large-scale targeted interest rate cut on residential mortgages by greatly guiding the downward trend of LPR quotations for more than five years, which is a key measure to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.
There are positive signals in many property markets.
Under the influence of a series of policies to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize", the property market has undergone positive changes.
On January 1, 2025, the online signing data of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development showed thatIn December 2024, the online signing volume of second-hand housing in Beijing exceeded 21,000 sets.Set a record in the past 21 months;It increased by 15% month-on-month and 66% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, in 2024, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was as high as 175,600 sets, up 13% from 2023. The overall listed houses have decreased significantly in the last two months, and the number of houses currently on sale has dropped to about 145,000 sets, which is more than 20,000 sets less than the highest point of more than 170,000 sets.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that after the "September 30" New Deal in 2024, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has been running at a high level for three consecutive months, especially in December 2024 under the influence of deed tax policy, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses has exceeded 21,000 sets, which is the highest value for 21 consecutive months and the second highest value for 44 consecutive months, fully reflecting the promotion of the policy.
From the perspective of future market trends, Zhang Dawei believes that the warm winter of Beijing property market will last until the first quarter of 2025, the transaction volume will continue to run at a high level, and the moderate increase in transaction price will be the main market characteristics in the coming months.
Not only in Beijing, but also in many hot cities, the property market showed obvious stabilization signals at the end of 2024.
Taking the Guangzhou market as an example, in terms of new house transactions,In December 2024, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in Guangzhou was about 1.2 million square meters, an increase of about 40% from the previous month and 70% from the same period last year.In the second-hand housing market, the transaction volume remained high. On the market side, in December 2024, there were 22 homestead transactions in Guangzhou, with a turnover of 25.45 billion yuan, and the transfer scale was at a high level.
In the Shenzhen market,In December 2024, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in Shenzhen was about 700,000 square meters, down about 10% from the previous month and up about 180% year-on-year.In the second-hand housing market, Shenzhen’s monthly transaction volume reached a new high in December 2024, and the price increase narrowed.
Judging from the number of cities where house prices have gone up and down, the data released by the Central Finger Research Institute shows that in November and December of 2024, the average listing price of second-hand houses in four cities and two cities respectively increased from the previous month.
Source: China Business Daily WeChat integrated fromChina securities journal, China Fund, etc.
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